Perspective | Have recent droughts begun the end of the Kansas wheat empire?

For the past three years, intense heat has crippled the production of wheat in the Midwest.

Many Kansans can tell you about harvest; the dust blowing in the air, the headers of combines chopping through waving wheat fields, and all the details that make Kansas home to one of the largest wheat industries in the world, earning us the title of the Breadbasket state.

However, in recent years, many factors — including three consecutive years of droughts — have caused Kansas to fall behind on wheat production when the world needed it most.

Photo via U.S. Wheat Associates

Before the current war between Russia and Ukraine, both countries were some of the largest producers of wheat in the world. Now, with Russia suffering from the embargoes and trade disputes with other nations and many of Ukraine’s fields destroyed by Russian armed forces, neither country was able to produce nearly enough to meet their regular quota.

Normally this would mean that American farmers would be able to cash out on their cash crops and help the grain trade, but the United States has also been falling behind its quota as well. Since 2021, the U.S. has felt three years of rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall. This series of droughts has caused massive drops in the amount of grain the country is able to produce.

I work for Mid Kansas Cooperative, one of the largest grain companies in South Central Kansas, at their location in Castleton based in the Ninnescah Valley in the heart of Reno County. This location takes in on average 200,000 bushels of grain each harvest or 12 million pounds of raw red wheat.

My first year working there, the 2021 drought brought the intake down to 170,000 bushels. In 2022, that number dropped again to 120,000 bushels. This year, the 2023 harvest saw an intake of 90,000 bushels — over 6 million pounds below average.

Of this, nearly half the grain was deemed low quality, suffering from heat damage, insect damage, and green damage (caused in large part by fluctuating climates). This meant around 3 million pounds of grain were of the quality to meet many basic standards for being used in bread, flour, pasta, and other grain-based products.

And despite being a smaller location, Castleton managed to bring in more grain than several local locations, raising the concern that unless things change, many of our local grain elevators and mills may be in danger. 

Now, what does this mean to you, the reader? It’s highly likely you will see an increase in price for many grain-based products as wheat has become increasingly harder to grow in the ever hotter Midwest. You can also expect more preservatives in products such as bread as companies desperately try to increase its shelf life with flour becoming more expensive.

And if 2024 produces yet another drought, the Kansas grain empire may very soon be put into jeopardy.